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Credit growth shell-shock hits home
During the global financial crisis (GFC) vast sums were flushed away as flimsy business models such as Centro Properties, A.B.C. Learning Centres and former investment bank Babcock & Brown...
View ArticleThe myth of the house price bubble—updated
A little less than a year ago, I wrote The myth of the house price bubble. It was a response to a Doddsville article colleague Gareth Brown penned titled Jeremy Grantham calls Australian property...
View ArticleBasel III: Blue sky or bailouts ahead?
Recently I attended a FINSIA presentation laying out the Basel III framework. If I haven’t lost you already, the framework stipulates the rules governing the amount and type of capital that a regulated...
View ArticleWas my NAB analysis a waste of time?
What will NAB be worth in 2017? Part 2 was published a few days ago on Share Advisor (you can find Part 1 here). Two members have since questioned the value of the research, which means that I could...
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Big banks brought to book
Probably the simplest valuation tool in the investor’s toolkit is the price-to-book ratio. You get it by dividing the total value of a company’s shares on the market (its market capitalisation) by the...
View ArticleBanks structured to deliver poor advice
Something odd occurred last week, something that almost never happens in business, let alone financial planning, a sector famously impervious to the needs of its customers. An industry body – in this...
View ArticleYour portfolio’s greatest threat
George, an investor from Tumbulgum* writes: “Hi Guys, Turns out this investing business isn’t as difficult as I thought. After loading up on News Corp, CSL and Macquarie Bank as you suggested in 2011,...
View ArticleDon’t bank on hybrids
Alongside the recent collapse in share prices has been a slump in the prices of hybrids, in many cases to below their issue price. I won’t say ‘I told you so’, because I didn’t, but my colleague...
View ArticleWho benefits from a lower dollar?
Finally, the jawboning seems to be working. Reserve Bank chief Glenn Stevens has said many times over the past year that the Australian dollar is overvalued and should fall. And now it has, down 7%...
View ArticlePlease, let the markets tumble
Since reaching 5,608 on 9 September, the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries is down to 5,186, a decline of 8%. The carnage has been widespread: Despite its $1b buyback, Telstra’s share price has fallen by 7%,...
View ArticleCarmen Segarra shows ASIC a way out of the shambles
We all hoped that regulators would learn something from the catastrophic mistakes that produced the Global Financial Crisis. The September 26th episode of This American Life, covering the case of New...
View ArticleBanks threatened by online competitors
With ANZ, National Australia Bank and Westpac expected to report record profits this week (Commonwealth Bank has a 30 June year end), everything is going swimmingly for Australia’s banking giants....
View ArticleBanks to government: don’t mess with us
Australia’s big four banking oligopoly has spent the past couple of days making not so subtle threats to the government that it should ignore any of the Murray financial system enquiry recommendations...
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Will peer-to-peer lending kill the banks?
Peer-to-peer lending is a US$3bn global industry, but has been slow to get off the ground in Australia, mainly due to regulatory restrictions. But, with the regulators easing their grip, it’s now...
View ArticleAustralian banks take China punt
Although the bursting of China’s credit boom would have serious consequences for investors in resource stocks, shareholders in Australia’s biggest banks have plenty to be concerned about, too....
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